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The Coming Plague
Has the War been Won?
"The war against infectious diseases has been won," William H. Stewart, U.S. Surgeon General confidently announced in 1969, and the world's population breathed a little easier. But the confidence was premature in fact, the battle was only beginning."
Doctors Joe McCormick, Jim Curran, Tom Monath and Kent Campbell share their thoughts on the coming plague:
What kind of precautions do you take before going out into the field?
Dr. Joe McCormick: The biggest precaution is the experience one gains. I've also learned not to get in a big rush when dealing directly with patients or in situations where there might be infection, and to do simple things like wearing gloves to examine a patient. I also think that when you are afraid and do things out of fear, it can cause trouble.
What is the biggest difference in how you prepare for an investigation now versus the beginning of your career?
Dr. Tom Monath: It's amazing how naive we were when I first started doing this 25 years ago. I would take thousands of blood samples without wearing gloves; I would separate blood sample tubes in a moving Land Rover. We didn't understand as much about the risks associated with that kind of behavior; there were no perceived dangers in working with wild animals.
What are the prevalent dangers to the United States as far as viruses moving here from other parts of the world?
Dr. Tom Monath: Air travel has changed our lives. People get on airplanes in areas where there are epidemic diseases, so there is a reasonable risk that certain diseases can be transmitted into our environment.
What are some of the mistakes that have been made in the war against these viruses?
Dr. Joe McCormick: For many years, we misled ourselves into thinking that infectious diseases were finished. Many of the infectious disease programs that had flourished in the `60s and `70s were cut to the bone. People decided that we needed to worry about other things. We were caught flat-footed with a relatively poor system of instruction and teaching about infectious diseases. Now we're trying to catch up and it isn't going to be easy.
What do you think is the most formidable, most frightening virus in existence today and why?
Dr. Joe McCormick: In many ways the most frightening virus is still rabies, because it is such a horrible disease and globally is still one of the more prominent, horrible diseases we have. Some of the viruses that cause diarrhea and pneumonia are the most formidable because we have no idea how to control them or how to prevent them. Even though those viruses are not the most dramatic, they are the ones that cause the most disease and death to the global population.
Dr. Tom Monath: I think that influenza is still potentially the most dangerous virus because of its capability to spread rapidly across all continents. In 1918, a lethal strain of influenza that was believed to be related to swine influenza emerged and spread worldwide and killed millions of people. That can clearly happen again. This is an agent that has a genetic material that can re-assort and mutate at a very rapid rate.
Dr. Kent Campbell: The most frightening thing out there right now is not a virus; it's actually a bacteria, and it's all around us. One of the greatest threats, at least in the U.S., is not the threat of these wild mysterious viruses that are occurring in Africa, but the rate at which common bacteria are becoming resistant to available antibiotics. Unless something is done to get control of the way we use antibiotics, we are going to have an absolute disaster. We are going to pay a much greater toll for that than Ebola and Lassa fever and all of these other mysterious viruses put together.
Dr. Jim Curran: There are many viruses that are nearly 100 percent lethal, but our chances of acquiring these viruses are quite low rabies, Ebola and Lassa fever. I guess I don't have a personal fear for any of the infectious agents; at this stage of my life, cancer and heart disease are more likely to kill me. But for the world, I think I still fear viruses like HIV, because they insidiously continue to grow and prosper in the environments of the world and will effect hundreds of millions of people before they are finished, and we will more or less watch it happen.
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